A personal reflection on the invisible force shaping every decision you make
Let me share a hypothetical scenario that illustrates a common leadership trap I see repeatedly. Imagine Sarah, a brilliant VP who’s struggling with what she calls her “disengaged team problem.” She’s tried everything—team building exercises, one-on-one check-ins, even bringing in motivational speakers. Nothing seems to work.
“I don’t understand,” she might say. “The more I try to engage them, the more they seem to withdraw. It’s like my efforts are making them less motivated.”
This scenario perfectly illustrates a concept that fundamentally changes how we view leadership challenges: reverse causality.
The Hidden Trap in Leadership Thinking
Reverse causality is the cognitive trap where we mistake effect for cause—where we get the causal relationship completely backwards. In leadership, this isn’t just an intellectual curiosity; it’s a silent saboteur that can derail even the most well-intentioned efforts.
As leaders, we’re trained to identify problems and solve them. We see patterns, make connections, and take action. But what happens when our pattern recognition leads us astray? What happens when the “solution” we’re chasing is actually treating the symptom while ignoring—or even deepening—the root cause?
This is where leadership becomes paradoxical. The very skills that make us effective—quick decision-making, pattern recognition, and action orientation—can sometimes work against us when causality isn’t what it appears to be.
The Sarah Scenario: A Case Study in Reversed Assumptions
Let’s continue with our hypothetical leader. Sarah has observed a clear pattern: the more team meetings she schedules to boost engagement, the less engaged her team appears. Her logical conclusion? Her team is naturally resistant to engagement efforts.
But what if we dig deeper? What if a different story emerges? Perhaps Sarah’s team isn’t withdrawing because of her engagement efforts—they’re already feeling overwhelmed and undervalued. Her well-intentioned meetings aren’t the cause of their disengagement; they’re an additional burden on people who are already struggling.
In this scenario, the disengagement is driving the withdrawal from meetings, not the other way around.
If Sarah could shift her perspective, everything might change. Instead of adding more touchpoints, she could start removing obstacles. Instead of pushing for participation, she could begin listening for what’s preventing it. The transformation could be remarkable—not because she found a magic solution, but because she’d finally be addressing the actual problem.
The Leadership Blindspots: Where Reverse Causality Hides
Through my years of coaching others, I’ve identified several common areas where reverse causality creates invisible blindspots:
The Performance Paradox
Leaders often notice that high-performing team members seem more confident and assume confidence drives performance. So they focus on building everyone’s confidence through positive reinforcement and motivational strategies. While well-intentioned, this approach often falls flat because confidence is largely a result of competence and success, not the primary driver of it.
The real work lies in developing actual skills and creating conditions for genuine wins—which then naturally builds authentic confidence.
The Communication Confusion
“My team doesn’t communicate with me because they’re not naturally open.” This assumption leads to more communication initiatives, open-door policies, and team-building exercises. But often, poor communication is a symptom of psychological unsafety, unclear expectations, or past negative experiences with sharing information.
The communication issue isn’t causing the relationship problems—the relationship and environmental problems are causing the communication breakdown.
The Innovation Illusion
“Our culture isn’t innovative because people don’t take risks.” This leads to innovation workshops, brainstorming sessions, and encouragement to “think outside the box.” But risk-aversion is usually a rational response to an environment where failure is punished, ideas are dismissed, or resources for experimentation don’t exist.
The lack of innovation isn’t causing the risk-aversion—the organizational context is creating both the risk-aversion and the innovation deficit.
The Personal Leadership Reckoning
As I’ve worked with others in leadership positions, I’ve noticed that recognizing reverse causality requires a particular kind of intellectual humility—one that doesn’t come naturally to those of us accustomed to being decisive and action-oriented.
I remember my own wake-up call early in my coaching practice. I was working with a leader who seemed resistant to feedback. My initial assessment was that his defensiveness was preventing growth, so I focused on helping him become more open to input.
But the reality was more complex. His defensiveness wasn’t preventing growth—years of poorly delivered feedback and criticism had created a protective response that was now hindering his development. His resistance wasn’t the problem; it was a symptom of past trauma around feedback.
Once I understood this, I could address the real issue: rebuilding trust and safety around developmental conversations. Only then could we work on the growth areas he needed to address.
This experience taught me that effective leadership often requires us to pause our natural problem-solving instincts and ask a different question: “What if I have this backwards?”
The Four-Step Framework for Causal Clarity
Over time, I’ve developed a framework that helps leaders identify and avoid reverse causality traps:
1. The Pause
When you notice a problem pattern, resist the urge to immediately identify the cause. Take a step back and observe without judgement. What are you seeing? What assumptions are you making about why it’s happening?
2. The Flip
Deliberately consider the reverse causal relationship. If you think A is causing B, explore how B might be causing A. This isn’t about being right or wrong—it’s about expanding your perspective.
3. The Third Factor
Look for underlying variables that might be causing both A and B. Often what appears to be reverse causality is actually two symptoms of the same root cause.
4. The Test
Before implementing solutions, test your causal assumptions on a small scale. If you’re addressing the real cause, you should see improvement. If not, you may need to revisit your analysis.
The Leadership Meta-Skill
Recognising reverse causality isn’t just about solving specific problems—it’s about developing what I call “causal intelligence,” a meta-skill that enhances every aspect of leadership.
Leaders with high causal intelligence spend less time fighting symptoms and more time addressing root causes. They waste less energy on ineffective solutions and create more sustainable change. They build stronger relationships because they understand what’s really driving behaviour, not just what appears on the surface.
Most importantly, they model intellectual humility for their teams, creating cultures where people feel safe to challenge assumptions and think critically about problems.
The Ripple Effect
When leaders begin to recognise and address reverse causality, the impact extends far beyond individual problem-solving. Teams begin to think more systematically about challenges. Decision-making improves because people are addressing actual causes rather than surface symptoms. Innovation increases because people feel safe to question conventional wisdom about cause and effect.
The organisation becomes more resilient because it’s solving problems at their source rather than constantly managing symptoms.
Your Leadership Challenge
As you reflect on your current leadership challenges, I invite you to consider: Where might you be getting causality backwards? What problems are you trying to solve that might actually be symptoms of deeper issues?
The next time you find yourself frustrated that a solution isn’t working, pause and ask: “What if I have this relationship reversed? What if what I think is the cause is actually the effect?“
This simple shift in perspective might be the key to unlocking leadership challenges that have been puzzling you for months or even years.
Because sometimes, the most profound leadership insights come not from finding new solutions, but from discovering we’ve been solving the wrong problem all along.
Gobinathan Manickam 